Natan Silva

Brazil

Comparative Analysis of Proportional Mortality Trends for Ischaemic Heart Disease in Brazil and Canada (1990-2022)

Alice Sales Ximenes, Medical Student, Unoeste, Presidente Prudente, Brasil
Hérica Almeida de Oliveira, Medical Student, Unoeste, Presidente Prudente, Brasil
Maria Eduarda Bertoni Trombeta, Medical Student, Unoeste, Presidente Prudente, Brasil
Natan Rosa Rodrigues da Silva, Medical Student, Unoeste, Presidente Prudente, Brasil
Guilherme Henrique Dalaqua, Phd, Unoeste, Presidente Prudente, Brasil

Abstract

Background

Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) is a major global killer. Brazil and Canada represent distinct epidemiological scenarios. Analyzing the proportional mortality of IHD helps understand the relative burden of cardiovascular disease on public health systems over time.

Methods

We performed an ecological trend analysis using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME/GBD). The variable analyzed was the “Percent of Total Deaths” attributed to IHD (ICD-10 I20-I25) for both sexes. Data were stratified by age groups: All Ages, Young Adults (15-49 years), and Older Adults (50-69 years).

Results

Regarding the general trend for all ages, Canada exhibited a steep and continuous decline in IHD proportional mortality, dropping from approximately 26% in 1990 to 14% in 2022, whereas Brazil showed a stagnant trend, fluctuating around 11-12% throughout the period, indicating a failure to reduce the relative burden of the disease. A critical disparity was observed in premature mortality (15-49 years); while Canada successfully reduced the IHD contribution to deaths in young adults from roughly 8.5% to 4.8%, Brazil remained flat at approximately 6%, meaning Brazil has surpassed Canada in the proportion of IHD deaths among young adults since roughly 2016. Finally, both countries showed a sharp dip in IHD proportional mortality in 2020-2021, interpreted as a “displacement effect,” where the surge in COVID-19 deaths temporarily reduced the relative percentage of other causes.

Conclusions

The disparity in trends reveals a “prevention gap.” Canada’s decline suggests effective cardiovascular risk management across all ages. Brazil’s stagnation, particularly the concerning data for the 15-49 age group, points to challenges in primary care and lifestyle factors, signaling an emerging burden of premature cardiovascular mortality in the country.